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Ricardo Valerdi Dissertation

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/556977
Title:
Costing for the Future: Exploring Cost Estimation with Unmanned Autonomous Systems
Author:
Ryan, Thomas Robert Jr.
Issue Date:
2015
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
This thesis explores three topics in the field of cost estimation for Unmanned Autonomous Systems. First, we propose a common definition of an Unmanned Autonomous System. We accomplish this through exhausting the literature in the areas cost estimation, autonomy in its current form, and how such advanced systems might be integrated into their environment. Second, we introduce a method to estimate the cost of Unmanned Autonomous Systems utilizing existing parametric cost estimation tools: SEER–HDR, COCOMO II, COSYSMO, and two cost estimating relationships–weight and performance. This discussion is guided by focusing on how current tools attempt to account for emergent systems. We also attempt to address challenges surrounding autonomy. To address these challenges from a cost perspective, this thesis recommends modifications to parameters within COCOMO II–via the use of object-oriented function points in lieu of current methods, and COSYSMO–via the introduction of two cost drivers namely, TVED and HRI-T. Third, we conduct analysis on four current Army Unmanned Autonomous Systems in an attempt to establish early trends within existing estimates. Finally, we explore areas of further research and discuss the implications of how pursing a more adequate cost model will lead to a better understanding of this ill-defined paradigm. *This material is based upon work supported by the Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Program under Grant No. N00244-15-1-0008. The views expressed in written materials or publications, and/or made by speakers, moderators, and presenters, do not necessarily reflect the official policies of the Naval Postgraduate School nor does mention of trade names, commercial practices, or organizations imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
Type:
text; Electronic Thesis
Keywords:
Autonomous Integration; Lifecycle Analysis; Parametric Cost Estimation; Unmanned Autonomous Systems; Systems Engineering; Autonomous Cost Estimating Relationships
Degree Name:
M.S.
Degree Level:
masters
Degree Program:
Graduate College; Systems Engineering
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Advisor:
Valerdi, Ricardo

Full metadata record

dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.titleCosting for the Future: Exploring Cost Estimation with Unmanned Autonomous Systemsen_US
dc.creatorRyan, Thomas Robert Jr.en
dc.contributor.authorRyan, Thomas Robert Jr.en
dc.date.issued2015en
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en
dc.description.abstractThis thesis explores three topics in the field of cost estimation for Unmanned Autonomous Systems. First, we propose a common definition of an Unmanned Autonomous System. We accomplish this through exhausting the literature in the areas cost estimation, autonomy in its current form, and how such advanced systems might be integrated into their environment. Second, we introduce a method to estimate the cost of Unmanned Autonomous Systems utilizing existing parametric cost estimation tools: SEER–HDR, COCOMO II, COSYSMO, and two cost estimating relationships–weight and performance. This discussion is guided by focusing on how current tools attempt to account for emergent systems. We also attempt to address challenges surrounding autonomy. To address these challenges from a cost perspective, this thesis recommends modifications to parameters within COCOMO II–via the use of object-oriented function points in lieu of current methods, and COSYSMO–via the introduction of two cost drivers namely, TVED and HRI-T. Third, we conduct analysis on four current Army Unmanned Autonomous Systems in an attempt to establish early trends within existing estimates. Finally, we explore areas of further research and discuss the implications of how pursing a more adequate cost model will lead to a better understanding of this ill-defined paradigm. *This material is based upon work supported by the Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Program under Grant No. N00244-15-1-0008. The views expressed in written materials or publications, and/or made by speakers, moderators, and presenters, do not necessarily reflect the official policies of the Naval Postgraduate School nor does mention of trade names, commercial practices, or organizations imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.en
dc.typetexten
dc.typeElectronic Thesisen
dc.subjectAutonomous Integrationen
dc.subjectLifecycle Analysisen
dc.subjectParametric Cost Estimationen
dc.subjectUnmanned Autonomous Systemsen
dc.subjectSystems Engineeringen
dc.subjectAutonomous Cost Estimating Relationshipsen
thesis.degree.nameM.S.en
thesis.degree.levelmastersen
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen
thesis.degree.disciplineSystems Engineeringen
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen
dc.contributor.advisorValerdi, Ricardoen
dc.contributor.committeememberValerdi, Ricardoen
dc.contributor.committeememberFurfaro, Robertoen
dc.contributor.committeememberKwinn, Michaelen

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Abstract

Today's need for more complex, capable systems in a short timeframe is leading many organizations towards the integration of existing systems into network-centric, knowledge-based system-of-systems (SoS). This presents new acquisition challenges in the area of cost estimation because of the lack of commonly accepted definitions and roles. Software and system cost models to date have focused on the software and system development activities of a single system. When viewing the new SoS architectures, one finds that the cost associated with the design and integration of these SoSs is not handled well, if at all, in current cost models. This paper looks at commonly cited definitions of SoS, then evaluates these definitions to determine if they adequately describe and converge on a set of SoS characteristics in the areas of product, development process, and development personnel that can be used to define boundaries and key parameters for an initial SoS cost model. Sixteen SoS definitions are synthesized to provide reasonable coverage for different properties of SoSs. Two examples are used to illustrate key characteristics relevant to cost modeling. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng 10: 297–308, 2007

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